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FORECASTS & CLIMATOLOGY

Florida hurricanes: Day of the week.

Local hurricane risk: R code for generating return periods from historical data.

Historical hurricane extrapolation track model. The model is based on the idea that given a large sample of possible storms weighted by similarity to characteristics of the best forecast (e.g., forward motion, intensity, etc), use the weighted ensemble to extrapolate beyond the forecast horizon given by the best prediction (National Hurricane Center).

Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean tropical cyclone climatology.

  • Estimated probability of observing at least one tropical cyclone of at least tropical storm intensity (34 kt) per degree latitude per degree longitude (Annual, Monthly, Weekly).
  • Estimated probability of observing at least one tropical cyclone of at least hurricane intensity (64 kt) per degree latitude per degree longitude (Annual).
  • Estimated probability of observing at least one tropical cyclone of at least major hurricane intensity (100 kt) per degree latitude per degree longitude (Annual).

Long-Range Outlook: Issued July 2001. Forecast Range = 30 years (Count in parentheses is total for 2001-2007).

  • Expected number of U.S. hurricanes = 50 (16).
  • Expected number of U.S. major hurricanes = 18 (7).
  • Expected number of Florida hurricanes = 20 (7).

 
For more information contact James Elsner